Internet Usage Analysis


Expected Internet Usage Increases

It is difficult to assess potential internet usage into the future. The internet is new so there is not much in the way of publicly available information. The only information available is on the internet itself and is sketchy at best. There are various companies which sell comprehensive projection information of this type. The quality of this information is unknown.

The inclusion of Internet usage statistics may seem unneccessary at this point and possibly irrelevant to the choice of report writers. The intention is to attempt to demonstrate a number of points.

  1. Internet usage is growing rapidly, both in the US and worldwide
  2. Even though Internet usage increase in the US is slowing the non-US area is still growing at an extremely rapid rate
  3. US ECommerce is expected to keep growing past the point of US Internet usage saturation
  4. Note that all the values shown here are statistical estimates. In the past these estimates have generally been low. It is probably something to do with human nature that the pessimists are most often heard. Probably something to do with the media.
  5. The internet is growing rapidly. The potential for the number of users and the quantity of data was probably unimaginable to even the most visionary minds in the past. That potential is probably still underestimated. Therefore the potential for doing-business on the internet for a company considering web-enablement is substantial. Investing in the most flexible and reliable internet software construction tools is expedient.
  6. The potential number of internet users and the size of that market could be tapped. How should this affect the types of software that a company invests in ? Are shrink-wrapped packages able to cope with the sheer volume of data on the internet that ECommerce companies could be dealing with in the very near future, next year for instance. If a company were to become fully internet enabled within two years what would be the scalability of previously purchased software packages ? Would it be better for a company to build software in-house ? Would in-house implementation allow for more flexibility in future growth ? Is your company planning to replace shrink-wrapped packages in the near future when the capabilities of those shrink-wrapped packages are exceeded ? Most GUI written shrink-wrapped packages were developed years ago and may very well have problems with ECommerce data volumes. If a company's ECommerce business is to expand consistently with the rate of Internet usage expansion, surely investment into in-house development could take advantage of potential internet expansion much more effectively.

Check out these internet population links. These are some example sites of how and where internet usage statistics were gathered. There are many more.

The following two diagrams are two histograms. These histograms represent current and potential internet usage numbers based on past growth of internet usage. The years shown are 1998 and 2002. Growth does not appear to be exponential in these diagrams but does appear to at least double in every country shown.

Following are two sets of internet usage statistics. Note that all grayed, italic figures are guestimates based on statistics that have been gathered online. Online future projection figures tend to vary. In addition the general assumption is that the US market will be saturated by the end of the year 2002. It has also been assumed that the non-US market will be saturated by the end of the year 2005. The ratio of US to non-US internet usage has been estimated based on the worldwide installed base of PC's. The worldwide installed base of PC's is supposedly 28% in the US. This figure could be incorrect since it probably does not show a true reflection of commercial to non-commercial PC use in the US in relation to the rest of the world. The fact that US GDP is based on 90% internal trade and 10% foreign trade (I think) could possibly alter this 28% figure drastically. Obviously at 10% foreign trade is not all that important to the US economy.

US Internet Users in Millions

 

Year US Internet Users in Millions Increase % Increase Change % Notes
1995

22

 

 

 

1996

38

73

 

 

1997

58

53

-20

 

1998

88

52

-1

 

1999

110

25

-27

 

2000

133

21

-4

 

2001

144

13

-8

US market may become saturated in 2002.

2002

163

7

-6

 

2003

175

3

-4

 

2004

180

1

-2

 

2005

184

0

-1

 



The US Internet usage market is assumed to have become saturated by the end of the year 2002.


Worldwide Internet Users in Millions


Year

US Internet Users in Millions

Non US Internet Users in Millions

Worldwide Internet Users in Millions

Increase %

Increase Change %

Notes

1995

22

10

32

 

 

 

1996

38

21

59

84

 

 

1997

58

42

100

69

-15

 

1998

88

86

174

74

+5

 

1999

110

152

262

51

-23

 

2000

133

194

327

25

-26

 

2001

144

298

442

35

+10

.

2002

163

392

555

35

0

 

2003

175

446

621

20

-15

 

2004

180

464

644

7

-13

 

2005

184

473

657

3

-4

Non US market saturated when US is 28% of worldwide installed PC base.

The non-US Internet usage market has in the past trailed behind the US Internet usage market. Thus since the PC installed base ratio of US to non-US markets are assumed to eventually be 28% the assumption is that this installed base ratio will become a reality by the end of the year 2005.

The pictures shown below (US ECOMMERCE 1998 - 2003) could be indicative of the possibility that the US Internet usage market will by no means be saturated by the end of the year 2002, in fact it could still be climbing rapidly. This diagram is actually completely contradictory to the assumption that US Internet usage will become saturated by the end of the year 2002. In fact this diagram assumes that US ECommerce is still expanding in 2003, therefore Internet usage could still be expanding at a similar rate.

US ECommerce 1998-2003 - Business to Business US ECommerce 1998-2003 - Business to Consumer

Expected Cost Analysis

This section is based on possible number of internet users at a fictitious cpmpany within the next 5 years and 10 years. Probably 10 years or greater would be a more realistic target for software survivability. However, the expected number of potential web site internet-based report writer users is enormous in scale compared any current usage. This is to be expected with the internet. Note that these estimates of numbers of expected users could be be optimistic. The better a company is prepared for internet usage then the more marketable that company will.

Let us take the example of a company which has 125 customers for instance. The number of customers have increased over the last 5 years @ 20% per year on average. It could also be assumed that the number of customer's clients also increase by 20% per year. Extrapolated values can be calculated using the compound interest formula shown below. The calculation is performed on an annual and not a daily rate simple interest form. All numbers have been rounded in the interests of simplicity.

Compound Interest Formula : total = principal (1 + rate)number of years

Customers

Customer's Clients

Let us say that on average, over the 10 year period, that 80% of customer's clients use and will use the internet. Thus the following adjustments can be made.

How do we assess the percentage of customer's clients who do or will in future trade on the web ? This is presently not an answerable question. Consumer purchasing rates may be subject to economic fluctuations. Economically lean periods could affect consumer purchasing power. Internet usage numbers are probably high now. These percentages will increase in the future as the internet gains better general acceptance.

How Much Time do Customer's Clients Spend Online ?

  Customers Customer Internet Users Total Customer's Clients Customer's Client Internet Users Total Internet Users
Today 125 50 70,000 1 51
5 years 300 120 500,000 5 125
10 years 800 310 3,200,000 32 342

European Internet Usage

Below are some pie charts showing European Internet Useage. It seems that perhaps that the colder it gets the more people there are on the internet.



European Internet Population


European Internet Percentages


EMail Usage

Email usage is expected to jump over 50% to over 60 billion users by the end of the year 2000 and then to reach 240 billion messages by the year 2003. Does this contradict the potential slow-down of the expansion of the internet over the next five years.

Loss of Internet Business

The amount of business lost on the web is staggering. Overall the numbers on the web are staggering. Many users abandon shopping carts, upto 60% of internet shoppers abandon virtual shopping baskets. The reasons for this are usually frear, confusion (can not find it) and more specifically lack of service. Perhaps web customers need live service.

Internet Traffic Report